The AI-Driven Economic Apocalypse: A Scenario for the Ages

Imagine a world where AI agents have taken over the economy, leading to mass unemployment and economic destruction. Sounds like science fiction, but it's a scenario that's being explored by Citrini Research.

TL;DR
• AI agents could destroy the economy by replacing human workers and creating a negative feedback loop.
• The scenario imagines a report from two years in the future, where unemployment has doubled and the stock market has fallen by a third.
• The report highlights the importance of understanding the implications of integrating AI into the economy.

Summary
The integration of agentic AI into the economy could have devastating effects, including mass economic destruction, over the next two years. A report by Citrini Research illustrates a scenario where AI capabilities improve, leading companies to need fewer workers, increased white-collar layoffs, and displaced workers spending less. This creates a negative feedback loop with no natural brake, causing unemployment to double and the total value of the stock market to fall by more than a third.

The scenario describes a situation where AI agents replace outside contractors, leading to a chain reaction of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth. This bear case focuses on the gradual unspooling of the economy itself, rather than Skynet-style misalignment. The report implicates business models that involve optimizing transactions between companies, similar to the Death of SaaS scenario.

Key concerns include:
• Companies relying heavily on AI agents for decision-making, potentially replacing human workers.
• The impact on employment and the stock market, with potential long-term consequences.
• The need for careful consideration of AI integration into the economy to mitigate risks.

The Citrini scenario highlights the importance of evaluating the potential risks and consequences of AI agents in the economy, including the need for extensive research and mitigation of potential risks before implementation. It also emphasizes the importance of planning for workforce displacement with support and training, as well as developing ethical AI protocols and standards.

As we continue to integrate AI into our economy, it's essential to consider the potential consequences and take steps to mitigate the risks. Can we avoid the AI-driven economic apocalypse, or is it already too late?